Thursday, March 18, 2021

Round 1 Tips & predicted Ladder

Big news - ZaphBot is now being ranked on Squiggle

Here are this weeks tips for ZaphBot, and the new bot I was trialling last year, which for now I will call ZELOBot since it is based on ELO but with a twist:

ZaphBot   

Ric=35 78%
WB = 1 56%
Mel=23 70%
Gee=36 79%
Haw= 2 56%
BL =16 66%
PA =22 70%
GWS= 7 60%
WCE=37 80% 

ZELOBot   
Ric=48 90%
Col= 7 56%
Mel=17 67%
Gee=53 90%
Haw= 2 53%
BL =38 86%
PA =44 90%
StK= 6 56%
WCE=42 90% 

Collingwood and StKilda are the two differences this week.


Ladder Prediction

I have also simulated 1,000,000 seasons with ZaphBots ranking of the teams, and here is the predicted ladder at the end of the home and away season.  The model places Richmond as the minor premiers, with Geelong as runner up, and Adelaide as firm favourites for the wooden spoon.

The table below shows the team, and their probability (%) of finishing in a given ladder position, as well as projected number of wins for the season.  It will be interesting to see how things go during the season:



The Third Bot

I'm working on a third bot at the moment, but it will take a bit longer to figure it out.  Once it is ready I'll add it to the list to compare, and will retro-fit the start of the season (it will be based on history up to the end of last season).

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