Monday, March 22, 2021

Round 1 results

 Round 1 is over, and what a ride that was - some incredible games going down to the line, and some amazing upsets.  Over on Squiggle I'm sitting in 3rd place after 1 round - it could have been worse!

Both models scored 6/9, but got there with slightly different paths

ZaphBot   

✔ Ric=35 78% 
✔ WB = 1 56%
✔ Mel=23 70%
✕ Gee=36 79%
✔ Haw= 2 56%
✕ BL =16 66%
✔ PA =22 70%
✕ GWS= 7 60%
✔ WCE=37 80% 

ZELOBot   
✔ Ric=48 90%
✕ Col= 7 56%
✔ Mel=17 67%
✕ Gee=53 90%
✔ Haw= 2 53%
✕BL =38 86%
✔ PA =44 90%
✔ StK= 6 56%
✔ WCE=42 90% 

Here's the standings after Round 1.  You'll see I've added a third bot in here, my 15yo son came up with a nice simple algorithm so I coded it up and included it in my testing.  Normally I wouldnt include it here, but given the result I'll keep it for a week.  It won't last given his 80-90% confidence in games, but being on top for a week is pretty cool!

                     Tips  Bits  MAE   Correct | Round by Round
HunterBot              6   2.83  18.4   66.7%  | 6                          
ZaphBot                6   0.49  19.9   66.7%  | 6                          
ZELOBot     6  -1.14  23.7   66.7%  | 6                    

This season I am doing some minor gambling and will track the results. Usually I will take either a line bet where my prediction is at least a goal away from the line, or a head-to-head where the odds are in my favor. I have started the season with exactly $100, and will bet in increments of $1 for the moment.

Two bets placed.   Richmond to beat the line, and Melbourne to beat the line.  Both won.

Balance:  $101.80
Profit/Loss:  $1.80

ZaphBot the next generation:
I am working on a tweaked version which may regard the results of the game differently while training and evaluating, it looks promising to start with and I'll share the results once I have it working properly (and will retro-fit the first round or two).

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Round 5

Here we go again.  Absolute shocker of a week last week, I'm now languishing at the bottom of the Squiggle ladder, and I don't even ...