Round 5

Here we go again.  Absolute shocker of a week last week, I'm now languishing at the bottom of the Squiggle ladder, and I don't even think the tips were that bad!

Round 5

Gambling:

Round 4 had 4 bets, of which 3 paid out.
Balance: $102.93

Round 5 bets:  StKilda, GWS, and Hawthorn - all to beat the line

Round 4 tips, and Round 3 results

 Like a kid with a bad school report, I've procrastinated and not posted the results of last week!

It was a shocking round for me, tipping just 3 of 9 (could easily have been 5 with two games being less than a kick at the end).

                     Tips  Bits  MAE   Correct | Round by Round
ZELOBot               18   0.13  30.7   66.7%  | 6750                        
HunterBot             17   5.29  27.3   63.0%  | 6830                        
ZaphBot               16   2.04  28.4   59.3%  | 6730     

Note that the scores above to not match Squiggle - my own tracking only considers what I tipped at the start of the round, whereas on Squiggle I did a refresh in the middle of the weekend and it flipped one tip based on the results of the round so far - so on Squiggle I got 4/9.

I've left my sons model in there because it's beating me, and it is absolutely killing it on the Bits score!

Still, I am not changing the algorithm other than rolling back a small change on how it calculates percentages.

Here are this weeks tips.                

Three differences this week: WCE/Stk, Ade/Nor, and Geel/Mel After last week I have no idea which is better :-)

Gambling:

Last week there were no clear bets to be made, so I didnt make any. 
Balance still at $101.59

This week I'm making 4 line bets, each for $1 with payout at $1.90
Those are:  North, StKilda, Essendon, and Freo - not that I expect those teams to win, but that they will do better than the line indicates.

Round 3 tips

Here are the Round 3 tips for the two models:

Round 2 went 'ok' with both bots getting 7/9 taking their total to 13/18 for the season so far.  This week they differ on a couple of games, both of which they pick as 1-point games, so should be interesting to watch.