Wednesday, March 10, 2021

2021: Put your money where your mouth is

So, here we go. Will this year be a 'proper' season, or will it be COVID-19 impacted?  Time will tell

This season I will continue with my tried and tested model as the primary model.  This is despite the new model out performing the old one for the 9 weeks that it ran at the end of last season.  My reasoning is that it was a compromised season and I do not have enough information to indicate whether the new model is truly better or not.

So this season I'll run both against each other, but use the original one in competitions/etc.

I'm also going to do some very tiny gambling and track the results.  I'm starting with a bankroll of a whopping $100, and will bet $1 on game outcomes each week, but not necessarily every game.  I'll choose the games based on the odds being offered compared to the odds my model is predicting.  It is possible some weeks will have zero bets due to no good odds being offered.


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