Round 2 tips and ladder projection

 Here are my tips for Round 2, for both bots.  Formatting sucks, I'll figure out something better for next week

ZaphBot  Car= 3 57% | Gee=22 70% | Syd=29 74% | PA =42 83% | StK=12 63% | GCS=17 66% | Ric=30 75% | WB = 5 58% | Fre= 7 60% | 

ZELOBot  Car= 3 53% | Gee= 8 59% | Syd=10 61% | PA =22 71% | StK= 7 56% | GCS=12 62% | Ric= 4 54% | WB = 4 54% | Fre= 5 56% | 

and here is the projected ladder for the end of the season

Round 1 results

 Round 1 is over, and what a ride that was - some incredible games going down to the line, and some amazing upsets.  Over on Squiggle I'm sitting in 3rd place after 1 round - it could have been worse!

Both models scored 6/9, but got there with slightly different paths

ZaphBot   

✔ Ric=35 78% 
✔ WB = 1 56%
✔ Mel=23 70%
✕ Gee=36 79%
✔ Haw= 2 56%
✕ BL =16 66%
✔ PA =22 70%
✕ GWS= 7 60%
✔ WCE=37 80% 

ZELOBot   
✔ Ric=48 90%
✕ Col= 7 56%
✔ Mel=17 67%
✕ Gee=53 90%
✔ Haw= 2 53%
✕BL =38 86%
✔ PA =44 90%
✔ StK= 6 56%
✔ WCE=42 90% 

Here's the standings after Round 1.  You'll see I've added a third bot in here, my 15yo son came up with a nice simple algorithm so I coded it up and included it in my testing.  Normally I wouldnt include it here, but given the result I'll keep it for a week.  It won't last given his 80-90% confidence in games, but being on top for a week is pretty cool!

                     Tips  Bits  MAE   Correct | Round by Round
HunterBot              6   2.83  18.4   66.7%  | 6                           
ZaphBot                6   0.49  19.9   66.7%  | 6                           
ZELOBot                6  -1.14  23.7   66.7%  | 6                      

This season I am doing some minor gambling and will track the results. Usually I will take either a line bet where my prediction is at least a goal away from the line, or a head-to-head where the odds are in my favor. I have started the season with exactly $100, and will bet in increments of $1 for the moment.

Two bets placed.   Richmond to beat the line, and Melbourne to beat the line.  Both won.

Balance:  $101.80
Profit/Loss:  $1.80

ZaphBot the next generation:
I am working on a tweaked version which may regard the results of the game differently while training and evaluating, it looks promising to start with and I'll share the results once I have it working properly (and will retro-fit the first round or two).

Round 1 Tips & predicted Ladder

Big news - ZaphBot is now being ranked on Squiggle

Here are this weeks tips for ZaphBot, and the new bot I was trialling last year, which for now I will call ZELOBot since it is based on ELO but with a twist:

ZaphBot   

Ric=35 78%
WB = 1 56%
Mel=23 70%
Gee=36 79%
Haw= 2 56%
BL =16 66%
PA =22 70%
GWS= 7 60%
WCE=37 80% 

ZELOBot   
Ric=48 90%
Col= 7 56%
Mel=17 67%
Gee=53 90%
Haw= 2 53%
BL =38 86%
PA =44 90%
StK= 6 56%
WCE=42 90% 

Collingwood and StKilda are the two differences this week.

Ladder Prediction

I have also simulated 1,000,000 seasons with ZaphBots ranking of the teams, and here is the predicted ladder at the end of the home and away season.  The model places Richmond as the minor premiers, with Geelong as runner up, and Adelaide as firm favourites for the wooden spoon.

The table below shows the team, and their probability (%) of finishing in a given ladder position, as well as projected number of wins for the season.  It will be interesting to see how things go during the season:

The Third Bot

I'm working on a third bot at the moment, but it will take a bit longer to figure it out.  Once it is ready I'll add it to the list to compare, and will retro-fit the start of the season (it will be based on history up to the end of last season).

2021: Put your money where your mouth is

So, here we go. Will this year be a 'proper' season, or will it be COVID-19 impacted?  Time will tell

This season I will continue with my tried and tested model as the primary model.  This is despite the new model out performing the old one for the 9 weeks that it ran at the end of last season.  My reasoning is that it was a compromised season and I do not have enough information to indicate whether the new model is truly better or not.

So this season I'll run both against each other, but use the original one in competitions/etc.

I'm also going to do some very tiny gambling and track the results.  I'm starting with a bankroll of a whopping $100, and will bet $1 on game outcomes each week, but not necessarily every game.  I'll choose the games based on the odds being offered compared to the odds my model is predicting.  It is possible some weeks will have zero bets due to no good odds being offered.