In Round 17 ZaphBot did OK, 6/9 - must try harder!
The new bot only managed 5/9 - maybe it's not as good as I hoped :-(
The only really bad tip was the Carlton game, even Geelong was not a very confident tip
ZaphBot Round 17 results
✔ West Coast by 1, 51% chance ❌ Geelong by 10, 65% chance ✔ Fremantle by 3, 53% chance ✔ Port Adelaide by 31, 80% chance ❌ GWS by 6, 59% chance ❌ Carlton by 36, 80% chance ✔ Western Bulldogs by 8, 57% chance ✔ Brisbane by 9, 59% chance ✔ Collingwood by 39, 80% chance
ZaphBot-New Round 17 results
✔ West Coast by 10, 60% ❌ Geelong by 14, 64% ❌ North by 1, 51% ** This is the only tip the two bots differ on ✔ Port Adelaide by 39, 87% ❌ GWS by 5, 55% ❌ Carlton by 34, 83% ✔ Western Bulldogs by 5, 55% ✔ Brisbane by 15, 65% ✔ Collingwood by 34, 82%
Season so far - the new bot is slightly ahead in tips, and has a good lead in Bits:
Tips Bits MAE Correct | Round by Round ZaphBot-New 100 19.14 23.2 69.4% | 65466836667787555 ZaphBot 97 14.28 24.3 67.4% | 84445845766686466 Autobot-PureELO 93 6.16 45.9 64.6% | 76246654875486447 Autobot-HomeTeam 84 2.42 25.8 58.3% | 66465913446764562
Here are the tips for Round 18 - you might notice a few 80% tips, that's because I put a hard limit on the maximum tip probability to avoid large penalties for getting it wrong. Those could probably be 90+ if I left it alone
ZaphBot Round 18 Tips
Richmond by 39, 80% chance Brisbane by 27, 75% chance Collingwood by 1, 52% chance Melbourne by 7, 56% chance Western Bulldogs by 1, 51% chance Hawthorn by 19, 65% chance West Coast by 38, 80% chance StKilda by 22, 75% chance Geelong by 34, 80% chance
For the new bot I've increased that cap to 90%, which may account for why it is doing better in Bits - I'll need to analyse that at the end of the season.
ZaphBot-New Round 18 Tips
Richmond by 49, 90% chance Brisbane by 28, 77% chance Port Adelaide by 2, 53% chance Melbourne by 7, 57% chance Western Bulldogs by 8, 57% chance Hawthorn by 11, 61% chance West Coast by 33 82% chance StKilda by 14, 64% chance Geelong by 26, 75% chance
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