This year was a much easier tipping year based on the overall results - so how did I do relative to others?
Season Tips MAE TipsBits Squiggle relative to S10
2025 | 72.2% | 26.32 | 47.13 | 99%
2024 | 61.6% | 26.76 | 28.20 | 95%
2023 | 67.6% | 27.02 | 22.72 | 96%
2022 | 69.1% | 25.90 | 21.24 | 91%
2021 | 67.1% | 27.43 | 19.10 | 103% ** 2nd place
2020 | 67.7% | ??.?? | 17.15
2019 | 65.2% | ??.?? | 13.26
2018 | 64.2% | ??.?? | 19.56
2017 | 57.7% | ??.?? | 11.07
I finished in the top 10, 8th place (excluding punters, s10, and aggregate)
I finished strongly in the Monash tipping (excluding the Grand Final, which for some reason I failed to tip and therefore avoided a position drop in the Probabalistic competition)
Monash Probabalistic: 7th place (would have been 10th if I'd tipped the GF)
Monsash Normal: 4th place
Monash Gaussian: 2nd place
SportsBet:
I place a couple of $1 bets each week (big spender!) - with the occasional $5 bet towards the end of the season. Usually I bet on the line when my tip is significantly different to the sportsbet line, but occasionally take a higher-odds multi-bet when there are bonus bet specials to offset the losses.
Balance at start of season: $94
Balance at end of season: $195
So I basically doubled my money through the season. Maybe next year I'll increase the bets to $2!
Whats next?
I hope to rework this new algorithm so it has more of an understanding of the strength of the opposition, and of relative timelines (eg a result 6 weeks ago might not be as relevant as the most recent result). Thats a lot of programming and testing to be done!
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