Monday, September 29, 2025

Season 2025 wrap up

This year was a much easier tipping year based on the overall results - so how did I do relative to others?

Season     Tips           MAE      TipsBits  Squiggle relative to S10

2025    |    72.2%    |    26.32    |    47.13    |    99%

2024    |    61.6%    |    26.76    |    28.20    |    95%
2023    |    67.6%    |    27.02    |    22.72    |    96%
2022    |    69.1%    |    25.90    |    21.24    |    91%
2021    |    67.1%    |    27.43    |    19.10    |   103%  ** 2nd place
2020    |    67.7%    |    ??.??      |    17.15
2019    |    65.2%    |    ??.??      |    13.26
2018    |    64.2%    |    ??.??      |    19.56
2017    |    57.7%    |    ??.??      |    11.07

I finished in the top 10, 8th place (excluding punters, s10, and aggregate)

I finished strongly in the Monash tipping (excluding the Grand Final, which for some reason I failed to tip and therefore avoided a position drop in the Probabalistic competition)

Monash Probabalistic: 7th place (would have been 10th if I'd tipped the GF)
Monsash Normal:  4th place
Monash Gaussian: 2nd place


SportsBet:
I place a couple of $1 bets each week (big spender!) - with the occasional $5 bet towards the end of the season.  Usually I bet on the line when my tip is significantly different to the sportsbet line, but occasionally take a higher-odds multi-bet when there are bonus bet specials to offset the losses.

Balance at start of season:  $94
Balance at end of season: $195

So I basically doubled my money through the season.  Maybe next year I'll increase the bets to $2!


Whats next?
I hope to rework this new algorithm so it has more of an understanding of the strength of the opposition, and of relative timelines (eg a result 6 weeks ago might not be as relevant as the most recent result).   Thats a lot of programming and testing to be done!

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Season 2025 wrap up

This year was a much easier tipping year based on the overall results - so how did I do relative to others? Season     Tips           MAE   ...